Dead Cat Bounce

There's a saying in the financial markets that even a Dead Cat will bounce, referring to a company's shares whose price has, after decreasing steadily in value, seemingly hit rock bottom, then starts to pick up again.

Novice investors see this and try to buy it for a bargain and the price continues to rise in the short term.

But more experienced investors steer clear - they know there is a reason the company was heading downhill, maybe something deep rooted in the structure or management of the company, which is causing it to fail.

Sure enough, when the bargain hunters have made their purchases, if the companies problems are not addressed the companies shares will rapidly go into decline again burning holes in the pockets of those with short term views.

The short term novices are left penniless while those with the long term view pick companies who, through the ups and downs, are well managed and offer them a more gradual return. 

So how would someone view the situation at Forest now? We've seen the introduction of a new Steve at the helm, a man whose appointment seemed to do the impossible of uniting Forest fans in complete agreement - sadly it was an agreement that this wasn't a great move.

Yet, two straight wins have prehaps given Cotterill a bit of breathing space. But is this simply a dead cat bounce or the start of some real change at Forest?

What has Steve done to get things going again?

1) Secure the back four.

Forest had been leaking set piece goals with abandon so far this season. Both centre halves, so calm last year have been adding to each others lack of confidence. Chambers in particular has gone from Player of the Year to a mistake making target of the perpetual Forest boo boys. 

Moving him out of the firing line to right back has also allowed probably the only Forest player to have grown in confidence this Season, Lynch, to move to his preferred position, where - fingers crossed - so far so good.

It's by no means an exciting back line, either in the 'Four Centre Halves' fielded v Middlesborough or with Gunter in a restrained left back role, but it has laid a foundation on which to build. 

It will be interesting to see how new recruit Greg Cunningham fits in, as his initial interview and reports from Manchester suggest he likes to get up the flanks, having started his career as a forward.

2) The resurrection of Tudgay

The work rate noticeably been upped in the first two games for Steve.

It seems such a simple thing but has made all the difference. Steve's first selection - including Tudgay at the expense of a more natural finisher like Derbyshire initially raised a fair few eyebrows. 

Yet Marcus's work rate has been excellent since his recall. He is also the sort of striker who stays out of the box until late in a move - unlike a Findlay or Derbyshire who prefer to be right on the shoulder of the last man. 

Therefore at the breakdown, Marcus has been on hand to help his midfield close down and get back to position.

3) A mobile midfield

With the deployment of a solid back four as we've discussed has allowed Cotterill to deploy both Mcgugan and Majewski in the midfield. 

We're all aware of the clubs lack of width (insert Andy Reid joke) - so Steve clearly wants to get our most creative two midfielders in the team to dictate play. In order to facilitate these guys though, the manager has left the likes of Greening, Reid & Boateng on the side line in favour of the more mobile and tenacious Moussi and Gunter. 

With both Raddy and Lewis grabbing goals in these first games the signs are good.

4) Simplicity

By my reckoning we played 4-4-2, 4-2-3-1, 4-3-3 and 5-3-2 under McClaren.

Cotterill seems intent on getting back to basics with Forest. Defenders defend, Forwards attack. 

I once met John 'Formerredscaptain' McGovern at a charity match and he told me the following story.

Clough took me to one side in in training and told me to sprint from one side of the pitch to the corner flag and back.

When I returned, he kicked me ball. 'Right, now run over and back with the ball.'

I dribbled it over and back.

 
'Now then,' said Clough, 'Which one was quicker?'

'Well, without the ball Boss.'

Clough wandered closer.

'Well, why don't you bloody pass it then?'

Dead Cat Bounce or the Start of something good. Who's to say? But for now lets just keep it simple.

U REDS!

The Panoptic Forest

No Cats were harmed in the writing of this Blog. 
 

The Doughty Dust

Well, that was a hectic few weeks.............

Steve makes a run for it.....

It really has been hasn't it? And as the dust starts to settle on last weekends events, it's pretty safe to say that it's likely to be similarly turbulent in the short term at the very least. 

A look at various betting sites will show you that consensus on a new manager is liable to change with the sort of volatility that would bring a stockbroker out in cold sweats. 

Whilst last weekenders protesters are claiming a hollow victory, their underpinning hope - and prehaps the only goal that was ubiquitouse among all Forest fans - that of a more open and transparent club, seems to be even further from reach. 

The club have closed ranks, letting little infomation in or out and this is a situation which is unlikely to change until some figurehead is in place. 

We'd hope that some provisional plan had been put into place prior to this point. Whilst the protests of last weekend, combined with onfield performances may have been the straw that broke the camels back, it is surely unlikely they were the sole reasoning for Doughtys repositioning of his future with the club. 

One suspects it had been on his mind for a while - 10 years is a long period of time for a businessman such as himself to be so heavily involved in any sort of project. The day to day underpinning of his business ventures is to help and cohearse underperforming business back to health before gradually leaving them to fend for themselves. Therefore his decision to wind down his involvement at Forest will not be a snap decision.

The question is now that of a chicken and egg type scenario for our foreseeable. Can a manager be attracted to the club while its ownership is also up for grabs. We've all seen stories like that of Manish's Football League buddy Leroy Rosenior, the televisual equivalent of an Alan Shearer Creosoting Audiobook. His glee at being appointed the new Torquay manager lasted just 10 minutes in 2007. At the same time as he was being installed as manager, the club was being bought by a local consortium. 

The Consortium decided Leroy wasn't the man for them and he was on his way shortly after the press conference announcing his arrival.

No manager want to be the next to challenge this record, which would lead this observer to think more of a coach - the names of Pemberton, MacDonald, have been floating around - would be installed, rather than the bookies favourite Keane or a similar abrasive option who will polarise opinion.

Even before this consideration Billy wasn't an option but you do have to credit his publicist for the 'Billy would consider helping till the end of the season' comment. He looks good, club looks bad, both know it'll never happen and fans get in a tizzy. 

Either way, expectations need to be lowered accordingly, as a Sheik Mansour is unlikely to pile in and purchase us Aguero, Kaka, Pratley and Whittingham.

This is a chance to have a proper clean sweep through the club and try to build and refocus. I, like many, have doubts on Mark Arthurs abilities in certain areas but rumours of further protests against him could just destabilise an already listing ship yet further. He may not have much track record with player aquisition but (believe it or not) he's pretty well respected by other clubs and managers. So for now, pack your green scarves away and reach for a red and white seatbelt instead. This could get pretty bumpy.........

U Reds!

The Panoptic Forest